13 Vodafone Group Plc
Morgan Stanley
BNP Paribas Exane
Bank of America Merrill Lynch
New Street Research
Deutsche Numis
Forward-looking statements
Barclays
JP Morgan
Citigroup
UBS
Berenberg
Summary of forward-looking statements
If you look forward to the second half, yes, our outlook at the high end of the range implies a slowdown. There are three factors that I would call out for that. On the positive front, we absolutely expect Germany to continue to improve in H2 because then we have zero MDU impact, and we will reach the full run rate of our wholesale migration of 1&1 this quarter. So from Q4, we will then be at full run rate, just standing at around 11 million. (…) But on the flip side, first of all, we continue to expect that our emerging markets growth contribution will trend down given that inflation moderates. (…) And also the UK, which had a very good first half, will see a slowdown in EBITDAaL growth, first, because - I know I have talked about that already on the last earnings - but there should be a slowdown in top line growth, in particular, in Q3, as we are facing very tough compares, in particular in our B2B business, where we had a positive one-off last year, which should then sequentially increase and improve going into Q4 and beyond into FY27, but it will dampen the performance. We also had some phasing impacts in the strong performance in the first half year, in the sense that the marketing expenses that are planned for this fiscal year in the UK are more back-end loaded to the second half year. Now FY27 is, in particular for me, very far out. (…) perhaps just some high-level puts and takes. First of all, we would expect the UK to be a very positive contributor and have a strong EBITDAaL performance based on the fact that we expect, for the first time, more sizable synergies from the merger coming together. For this year that was really basically no contribution from synergies, but it will start to step up in the next year. In Germany, we will face puts and takes. Obviously, in the first half, the benefit from the MDUs being fully out of the numbers, and in Q1, still a ramp-up effect from the wholesale migrations. But then for the remainder of the year, they will be out of the numbers in terms of year-over- year help. So then we will have to see what the market conditions do to see what that means for the German performance. Then also in FY27, I would continue to see a year-over-year challenge, from an emerging markets growth perspective.
Adjusted EBITDAaL
H2 FY26
Group
Page 4
Adjusted EBITDAaL
Page 4 and 5
FY27
Group
(…) what we are seeing is that the mix in our EBITDAaL contribution continues to shift back more favourably to Europe now in the balance between emerging markets and Europe, and that obviously drives also good predictability, which should be a net positive. Page 5 All these taken in aggregate is, I would say, where we wanted to be through the Group transformation. And it is the reason why you hear us talking about an outlook of mid-term free cash flow growth, yes. Page 10
Adjusted EBITDAaL
FY26 & beyond Mid-term outlook
Group
Group
Adj, FCF
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